The Elliott Wave Principle - Key To Market Behavior 9780471988496 下载 pdf 百度网盘 epub 免费 2025 电子书 mobi 在线

　　《艾略特波浪理论:市场行为的关键》内容简介：艾略特波浪理论中三段式的波浪前进，符合事物发生、发展和消亡的三个基本过程。在学习波浪理论之前，我认为应当首先明确股票市场的运动是有规律的，而这种客观规律是可以被我们通过某种手段认识的。

"This is a definitive, excellent book on Elliott, and I recommend

it to all who have an interest in the Wave Principle." Richard

Russell, Dow Theory Letters

"Gold and Silver Today wholeheartedly endorses this book. It is

the definitive work on a scientific wave theory of human

experience. If you are interested in technical or wave analysis, it

should be required reading." Gold & Silver Today

"This book is extremely well done. It is clear, brief and

bold....by far the most useful and comprehensive for both the

beginner and the veteran." William Dilanni, Wellington Mgmt.

Co.

"An outstanding job...I don't think a better basic handbook of

Elliott Wave theory could be written." Donald J. Hoppe, Business

and Investment Analysis

"...A top-drawer reference for serious technical analysts....all

the nuts and bolts necessary to do their own Elliott Wave

assembly." Futures Magazine

"Chapter Three is the best de*ion of Fibonacci numbers we've

seen in print and that alone is worth the price of the book." Janes

Dines, The Dines Letter

"In a third of a lifetime in this business, this was the first

time I really understood Elliott, and this is certainly the first

book on Elliott that I could recommend. All the methods that

Prechter has used so successfully are fully described in this

book." The Professional Investor

"Elliott Wave Principle is such an important, fascinating, even

mind-bending work, we are convinced that it should be read by and

and every serious student of the market, be they fundamentalist or

technician, dealing in stocks, bonds or commodities." Market

Decisions

"Even allowing for minor stumbles, that 1978 prediction must go

down as the most remarkable stick market prediction of all time."

James W. Cowan, Monitor Money Review

Recipient of the Technical Analysis Association's Award of

Excellence

Part I: Elliott Theory

The Broad Concept

Guidelines of Wave Formation

Historical and Mathematical Background of the Wave Principle

Part II: Elliott Applied

Ratio Analysis and Fibonacci Time Sequences

Long Term Waves and an Up-to-Date Composite

Stocks and Commodities

Other Approaches to the Stock Market and Their Relationship to the

Wave Principle

Elliott Speaks

Appendix: Long Term Forecast Update, 1982 -

1983

Publisher's Postscript

　　小罗伯特R.普莱切特（Prechter.R.R.Jr），不仅著有几本关于市场的著作，还是《艾略特波浪理论家》和《全球市场展望》这两份预测月刊的编辑。赫尔伯特评级机构报告说，截止到1993年12月31日的13.5年中，《艾略特波浪理论家》超出了威尔士5000指数的表现，而同期面对的市场风险仅为50％。

　　《艾略特波浪理论家》已两次获得《硬货币文摘》的“卓越奖”，两次获得《市场时机搜寻者文摘》的“年度市场时机搜寻者奖”，成为获得如此殊荣的市场通讯。1984年，在美国交易锦标赛中，普莱切特先生在4个月的竞赛期间内，在受监控的实盘期权账户中创造了444.4％的回报率。1989年12月，金融新闻网称他是“本十年的大师”。1990～1991年，普莱切特先生在市场技术分析师协会自成立起的第21年担任其总裁。

　　普莱切特先生曾以全额奖学金进入耶鲁大学，并干1971年获得心理学学位。他以纽约的美林市场分析部的市场技术分析专员开始其职业生涯，在那里他初的波浪理论研究工作使他拥有了一小批忠诚的追随者，并在他被引见给A.J.弗罗斯特后，终著成本书。

　　阿尔弗雷德

J.弗罗斯特（Frost.A.J.），注册金融分析师（CFA）A.J.弗罗斯特毕业于加拿大安大略省金斯顿的女王大学。1934年被吸收入安大略注册会计师学会并在1937年进入安大略的律师业。

　　1960年，弗罗斯特先生成了已故的汉密尔顿?博尔顿的合伙人，博尔顿将他引入了艾略特波浪理论。1967年，博尔顿去世后，他曾为博尔顿?特伦布莱——两人是《银行信用分析家》的编辑——的公司撰写过《艾略特波浪副刊》。1977年，弗罗斯特先生为市场技术分析师协会做了一次关于艾略特波浪理论的演讲。在那里，他遇到了普莱切特先生，普莱切特先生发现他们的观点是如此的不谋而合，尽管他们是两代人，又隔着一条国境线。弗罗斯特先生曾为金融新闻网提供市场周评，而且是被加拿大技术分析师学会邀请多的演说者之一。

　　ROBERT R. PRECHTER JR. is author of several books on the markets

and editor of two monthly forecasting publications, The Elliott

Wave Theorist and Global Market Perspective. The Hulbert rating

service reports that The Theorist exceeded the performance of the

Wilshire 5000 over 131/2 year period ending December 31, 1993,

while being exposed to market risk only 50% of the time. EWT has

won Hard Money Digest's "Award of Excellence" twice and Timer

Digest's "Timer of the Year" twice, the only newsletter to do so.

In 1984, Mr Prechter set an all time record in the United States

Trading Championship by returning 444.4% in a monitored real-money

options account in the four month contest period. In December 1989,

Financial News Network named him "Guru of the Decade". In

1990-1991, Mr Prechter serves as President of the Market

Technicians Association in its twenty-first year.

　　Mr Prechter's latest venture is Elliott Wave International, which

provides monthly and intraday analysis on stock markets,

currencies, interest rates, commodities and social trends to

institutional and private investors around the world.

　　Mr. Prechter attended Yale University on a full scholarship and

graduated in 1971 with a degree in psychology. He began his career

as a Technical Market Specialist with the Merrill Lynch Market

Analysis Department in New York, where his original work with the

Wave Principle led to a small but loyal following, introduction to

A.J. Frost and ultimately this book.

　　A.J. FROST C.F.A., a graduate of Queen's University, Kingston,

Ontario, started his career as a legal accountant. He achieved his

objective on being admitted to the Ontario Institute of Chartered

Accountants in 1934 and on his call to the Ontario Bar in 1937. In

1959, he was elected a fellow in the Institute for distinguished

service to the accountancy profession. He served as Chairman of the

National Capital commissions (Canada) for two years and later sat

on the bench as a member of the Tax Appeal Board, Tax Review Board

and Anti-Inflation Appeal tribunal. He has handed down many

decisions in the field of income tax law. During his career, Mr

Frost served on two university councils and the boards of several

Canadian corporations.

　　In 1960, Mr. Frost became a partner of the late Hamilton Bolton,

who introduced him ot the Elliott Wave Principle. After Bolton's

death in 1967, he wrote two Elliott Wave Supplements for the firm

of Bolton-Tremblay, the editors of the Bank Credit Analyst. In

1977, Mr Frost delivered a speech on the Elliott Wave Principle

before the Market Technicians Associations. There he met Mr.

Prechter, whom he found to have remarkably compatible ideas despite

their separation by two generations and national boundary. Mr.

Frost provided weekly market commentary on Financial New Network

and was one of the most frequently requested speakers for meetings

of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts.

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支撑和阻力现象在普通的波浪行进和熊市的极限（第四浪的密集成交区域【Congestion】是对后来下跌的支撑）中显而易见。大成交量和价格波动（缺口）是“突破”的明显特征，这种突破通常与第三浪同时发生。。。。。

艾略特本人从未研究过为什么市场的基本形态是五浪行进和三浪后退（Regress）。他只是注意到这就是所发生的事实。基本形态非得是五浪和三浪吗?考虑一下你就会认识到。这是在线性运动中同时包含振荡（Fluctuation）和行进的最低要求，因此也是最有效的方法。一浪不会允许有振荡。形成振荡的最小细分浪是三浪。在两个方向上的（不限制规模的）三浪不会允许有行进。纵使有各种后退期，要朝一个方向上的行进，主要趋势上的运动就必须至少是五浪．这不仅比三浪的涵盖更广，而且仍然包含了振荡。尽管可能有比这更多的波浪，但是分段行进的最有效形式是5--3循环，而且自然界有遵循最有效途径的特点。

识别这种模式的关键是，与第三子浪相比，第五子浪中的价格变化明显缓慢。相比之下，在第一浪和第二浪的发展过程中，短期速度常常会提高，而且广泛性常常会扩大。

査尔斯.道是对美国股市运动造诣最深的学者之一，他注意到市场持续旋转中的某种重复。从这种看似杂乱无章的运动中，道发现市场并不像风中的气球那样飘忽不定，而是有序地运动。道阐明了两个业已经受住时间考验的理论。他的第一个理论是，市场在其主要上升趋势中以三次向上的摆动为特征。他将第一次摆动归结为从前面主要跌势的价格过度悲观开始的反弹；第二次向上摆动与企业和利润的改善联动；第三次，而且是最后一次摆动是价格与价值的背离。

在大浪级和大浪级以上，成交量往往会在上涨的第五浪中放大，而这仅仅是因为牛市参与者的数量自然的长期增长。实际上，艾略特注意到，大浪级以上的牛市终点的成交量常常创天量。

“但是，实际在股票市场振荡中记录下来的，”他说，“不是各种事件本身，而是人类对这些事件的反应。简而言之，成百上千万的男男女女是如何感受这些事件的可以影响他们的未来。”巴鲁克补充道，“换言之，股票市场首先是人。正是人在试图预言未来。而且正是这种强烈的人性使股票市场成了一个如此富戏剧性的舞台，在此男男女女投入了他们相互冲突的判断，their hope and fear,power and weak,greed and fantasy.”

编辑推荐

　　"This is a definitive, excellent book on Elliott, and I

recommend it to all who have an interest in the Wave Principle."

Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters "Gold and Silver Today

wholeheartedly endorses this book. It is the definitive work on a

scientific wave theory of human experience. If you are interested

in technical or wave analysis, it should be required reading." Gold

and Silver Today "This book is extremely well done. It is clear,

brief and bold....by far the most useful and comprehensive for both

the beginner and the veteran." William Dilanni, Wellington Mgmt.

Co. "An outstanding job...I don't think a better basic handbook of

Elliott Wave theory could be written." Donald J. Hoppe, Business

and Investment Analysis ..".A top-drawer reference for serious

technical analysts....all the nuts and bolts necessary to do their

own Elliott Wave assembly." Futures Magazine "Chapter Three is the

best de*ion of Fibonacci numbers we've seen in print and that

alone is worth the price of the book." Janes Dines, The Dines

Letter "In a third of a lifetime in this business, this was the

first time I really understood Elliott, and this is certainly the

first book on Elliott that I could recommend. All the methods that

Prechter has used so successfully are fully described in this

book." The Professional Investor "Elliott Wave Principle is such an

important, fascinating, even mind-bending work, we are convinced

that it should be read by and and every serious student of the

market, be they fundamentalist or technician, dealing in stocks,

bonds or commodities." Market Decisions "Even allowing for minor

stumbles, that 1978 prediction must go down as the most remarkable

stick market prediction of all time." James W. Cowan, Monitor Money

Review Recipient of the Technical Analysis Association's Award of

Excellence

媒体评论

　　这是一本关于艾略特理论的，杰出的权威著作，因此我向所有对波浪理论感兴趣的人推荐这本书。

　　——理查德?罗素，《道氏理论通讯》

　　《今日金银》完全认可这本著作。这是一本关于人类经历的科学的波浪理论权威著作。如果你对技术分析或波浪分析感兴趣，就应该读读这本书。

　　——《今日金银》

　　这本书写得极好。它清晰、简洁而且颇具胆识……对于新手和老手来说这是到目前为止有用、全面的著作。

　　——威廉?蒂安妮，威灵顿管理公司

　　一项出色的工作……我相信不会有人写出一本更好的艾略特波浪理论的基本手册。

　　——唐纳德J.霍伯，《企业与投资分析》

　　……严谨的技术分析人士的*参考书……艾略特波浪理论汇总了所有必要的细节。

　　——《期货》杂志

　　在我们见过的出版物中，本书的第3章是对数字的*描述。单单这一章就值整本书的钱。

　　——詹姆士?蒂纳斯，《蒂纳斯通讯》

　　《艾略特波浪理论》正是对一种概念的*描述和确认。这种概念按理说应当彻底变革对历史和社会学的科学研究。

　　——JWG,纽约

　　在这个行当三分之一的生涯中，这是我次真正理解了艾略特波浪理论，而且这当然是我本能够推荐的关于艾略特理论的书。普莱切特过去成功运用的所有方法在本书中都有详尽的描述。

　　——《职业投资者》

　　《艾略特波浪理论》是如此一本重要的、迷人的，甚至引人兴奋的著作，我们相信所有严谨的市场学者——无论是基本分析人士还是技术分析人士，在处理股票、*和商品期货时都应当读一读。

　　——《市场决策》

　　尽管有微小的失误，但1978年的预测也必定会作为有史以来卓著的市场预测流传下去。

　　——詹姆士 W.科万，《监控货币评论》

书籍介绍

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s and '40s, the Elliott Wave Principle is a powerful analytical tool for forecasting stock market behavior. The basic concept behind the Wave Principle is that stock market prices rise and fall in discernible patterns and that those patterns can be linked together into waves.

In the years since it was first published, this classic guide to the Elliott Wave Principle has acquired a cult status among technical analysts, worldwide. And with each new edition, the authors have refined and enhanced the principle, while retaining all the predictions from past editions.

The 20th Anniversay Edition includes a special foreword and enhanced text. It’s the final revision of a classic.

"Elliott Wave Principle is simply the best description and validation of a concept which by all rights should be revolutionizing the scientific study of history and sociology." –JWG, New York

"Elliott Wave Principle is such an important, fascinating, even mind-bending work, we are convinced that is should be read by any and every serious student of the market, be they fundamentalist or technician, dealing in stocks, bonds or commodities." –Market Decision$

"Even allowing for minor stumbles, that 1978 prediction must go down as the most remarkable stock market prediction of all time." –James W. Cowan, Monitor Money Review

"Elliott Wave Principle is the greatest work of any kind, anywhere. It has helped me abandon speculative stock tips and stockbroker newsletter recommendations for my own predictions based on the simple wave theory." –J.V.

"I have just received my copy of Elliott Wave Principle and find it to be unquestionably the best book and explanation regarding the works of Elliott that I’ve ever seen." –J.B.B.

"I have recently read and reread Elliott Wave Principle. I was impressed with the research and especially thrilled with the excitement of coming into contact with a truly original concept." –M.F.

From the Inside Flap

Robert R. Prechter, Jr. Robert R. Prechter, Jr. is author of several books on the markets and editor of two monthly forecasting publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and Global Market Perspective. The Hulbert rating service reports that The Theorist exceeded the performance of the Wilshire 5000 over the 131/2 year period ending December 31, 1993, while being exposed to market risk only 500f the time. EWT has won Hard Money Digest’s "Award of Excellence" twice and Timer Digest’s "Timer of the Year" twice, the only newsletter to do so. In 1984, Mr. Prechter set an all time record in the United States Trading Championship by returning 444.4 0n a monitored real-money options account in the four month contest period. In December 1989, Financial News Network named him "Guru of the Decade". In 1990–1991, Mr. Prechter served as President of the Market Technicians Association in its twenty-first year. --This text refers to the Paperback edition.